3 Steps to Slash Your Halloween Bill (Deal of the Day)

There may be no way to avoid buying an Iron Man costume this Halloween, but at least you can do it on the cheap. Even as Americans say they plan to spendmore than $66 on costumes, candy and other Halloween gear this year, according to the National Retail Federation – up 18% over last year – new savings tactics can help keep costs from bubbling over budget.

People are expected to participate more in the holiday this year, with more saying they plan to wear a costume (up 21%), carve a pumpkin (up 9.5%), visit a haunted house or decorate their home, according to the NRF.

Still, retailers are running scared, shaken by slow winter holiday sales and early discounts, experts say. Sugar and cocoa prices both hit record highs earlier this year, but candy-makers and grocery stores have eaten most of the cost increases to stay competitive, says Philip Gorahm, an equity analyst for Morningstar. On the costume racks, leftovers from last year have stores lowering coupon minimums, offering discounts on purchases of as little as $25 instead of last year’s $50, says Sok Verdery, the founder of CouponShack.

Retailers’ fears have also led to bigger discounts earlier in the season, a boon for deal hunters. Here’s how to cut costs on three big Halloween expenses.

Average 2010 projected budget: $23.37 (up 13% from 2009)

Newly popular, group-buying sites have gotten into the spirit, offering vouchers worth a 50% discount at Halloween sites and local stores. Groupon recently offered Los Angeles residents $25 of in-store credit at Halloween Club for $12, and LivingSocial users could pay $15 for $30 at HalloweenExpress.com. Payment certificates can often be paired with coupon codes, too.

To maximize savings on costumes, browse the clearance section, Verdery says. Each year, manufacturers typically come out with a new version of pirate costumes, princess dresses and other costumes. Last year’s silver “Gatsby Girl” adult flapper costume is on clearance for $30 at BuyCostumes.com, less than half the price of this year’s nearly identical one in black, which costs $70.

Average projected budget: $18.66 (up 28%)

It’s a great year for cheap pumpkins. Farmers across the country have reported good pumpkin harvests, which means they need to clear their fields. The average pumpkin costs $4.33 this season, down 10% from last year, according to the Department of Agriculture.

To stretch your budget, think seasonal rather than Halloween. Garden stores continue to cut prices on on chrysanthemums, decorative kale and other fall annuals, which may be 50% off by now, says Susan Littlefield, the horticultural editor for the National Gardening Association. For seasonal décor through Thanksgiving, just add a few cheap hay bales and some winter squash. (You can also repurpose the hay for yard mulch and the squash for eating, she says.)

If you’re in the market for a cackling bat or an animated coffin for the front yard, many of the same group vouchers for costumes can also be used on decorations.

Average projected budget: $20.29 (up 13%)

For chocolates alone, Halloween is the biggest-selling season, with 90 million pounds sold, according to market researcher Nielsen. But while sugar and cacao prices have been on the rise, consumers are unlikely to feel the pinch until the economy improves, Gorahm says. The lag between purchase and manufacturing delays price increases, but stores are also more likely to use candy as a loss leader to pull in consumers this time of year.

To save, look for print-at-home deals, says Stephanie Nelson, the founder of CouponMom.com. Sites such as Redplum and SmartSource.com have twice as many candy coupons this year than they did in 2009, she says, including one for $1 off three Hershey-brand snack-size bags and another for $1 off Hershey’s Bliss chocolates. Paired with store sales -- like Rite Aid’s (RAD) $5 rebate on a Hershey’s candy purchase of $15 or more -- it’s easy to walk away with a full bag.

The New Best Places to Retire

All the charm of Asheville, but with cheaper housing. The recreation of Boulder, without the income tax. The sunshine of Sedona, with a lower cost of living. With today’s would-be retirees as concerned about whether they’ll get to retire as they are about where, the best cities and towns for retirees now have a much higher bar to clear: They can’t just be great places – they have to be affordable.

That leaves most of the old standbys off the list. As boomers have gotten older, they’ve flocked to places like Sarasota, Fla., Pinehurst, N.C., and Eugene, Ore., driving up prices along the way. Two decades ago, Asheville was a tiny, affordable North Carolina town; in the last two decades, since the North Carolina Center for Creative Retirement was established, the population’s grown 24%, and the cost of living is now higher than the national average, according the Council for Community and Economic Research. But the real story is in the meteoric rise of real estate prices in retiree-friendly markets: Despite the national housing collapse, prices in Boulder, Colo., have risen 10% in the last four years, according to Zillow.com, while other cities, like Madison, Wis., have suffered very small declines. As a result, many of those spots are prohibitively expensive, even after prices have fallen.

Meanwhile, nest eggs have shrunk, and retiree incomes are stagnating. Social Security benefits didn’t rise in 2010, nor will they in 2011. Benchmark Treasury bond yields are at their lowest since January 2009, and certificates of deposit are earning almost nothing – at 0.55% interest, a one-year $10,000 CD would earn just $55. Forget what the Social Security Administration says: For anyone looking to make their savings last, cost of living does matter.

But that doesn’t mean a beautiful mountain town or a great university community is off limits. Looking for all the advantages of the conventional best places with half the costs, SmartMoney.com found doppelgangers – the more affordable twins to some of America’s previous chart-toppers. They’ve got a similar culture, climate and suite of amenities, as well as comparable medical, educational and travel offerings. But as of today, they’re less well-known, less crowded, and less expensive places to live.

Next: Better than Sedona, Ariz. ...

The morning News: November 2, 2010

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The Rally Might Not End So Soon (Ahead of the Curve)

With the economy struggling after the worst recession on record, an ongoing debt crisis in Europe, a brewing trade war with China, a collapsing dollar, and yet another mortgage scandal, I'm going to make the case that stocks could be at all-time highs by this time next year.

My prediction doesn't require a particularly rosy view of the economy -- just simple arithmetic.

Let's start with this: $103 per share. That's the record high for expected operating earnings for the S&P 500. It was set almost exactly three years ago. Not coincidentally, the S&P 500 reached its all-time high (1565) around the same time.

Now another number: $63 per share. That's the low for expected earnings for the S&P 500, set in May 2009, a month before the bottom of the recession, but two months after the bottom for stocks.

The 39% drop from $103 to $63 is quite a tumble. It's not the worst earnings drop in history, but it is the worst since 1938. And it happened even though the gross domestic product fell only 1.1% over the same period (not adjusted for inflation).

Now, a third number: $92. That's where expected earnings per share are right now. That's a huge gain off the low -- an amazing 46%. That stellar gain took place while GDP grew only 5% (again, not adjusted for inflation, and assuming that third-quarter growth was the same as second-quarter growth).

As I discussed in this column a couple of months ago, this kind of earnings jump happens because of "operating leverage." When a recession hits, earnings are hit far worse than the overall economy. And when the recovery begins, even a modest recovery, earnings come surging back. It's as close to a law of nature as you're ever going to find in investing.

All it would take now for earnings estimates to return to all-time highs would be another 12% increase. That seems pretty much inevitable over the coming year, unless the economy lapses into another recession (which, as I explained here recently, it's definitely not going to do). If 5% GDP growth can trigger a 46% earnings recovery, it doesn't seem like that much of a stretch to think that we could get the further 12% earnings recovery we need, even if GDP growth is downright mediocre.

12 Potential Leveraged-Buyout Candidates

AFTER A LULL FOLLOWING THE 2008 financial crisis, leveraged-buyout activity is perking up with a $1.8 billion deal last week for children's clothing retailer Gymboree (GYMB) and a recent transaction involving Burger King. Seagate Technology (STX) said Thursday that it has been approached by private-equity firms about an LBO, and there was talk last week about a potential LBO of Yahoo! (YHOO) in a deal that could top $25 billion.

The heightened activity has led to speculation on Wall Street about which companies could become the next targets. After talking to a group of analysts and investors, we've come up with a list of a dozen potential LBO candidates, including Gap (GPS), Safeway (SWY), Dell (DELL), eBay (EBAY) and Whirlpool (WHL); disk-drive makers Seagate Technology and Western Digital (WDC), and retailers Aeropostale (ARO) and GameStop (see table, An Attractive Dozen).

We're analyzing the candidates the way private-equity firms do, by focusing on companies with modest debt—some have sizable net cash positions—that trade for reasonable multiples of earnings and pretax cash flow. Gap, for instance, trades around 19, or 11 times projected 2010 profits. It also has more than $2 a share in net cash. Whirlpool, at 84, trades for nine times projected earnings, and Dell, at 14, fetches 11 times forward profits with $4 a share in net cash.

Yahoo! is attracting interest because it holds cash and valuable stakes in Asian Internet companies that could be worth a total of more than $10 a share—60% of its stock price even after a two-point gain last week to 16 on the buyout speculation. Early this month, Jefferies analyst Youssef Squali wrote that asset-rich Yahoo! could fetch $20 to $23 a share in an LBO.

"Just about any company trading for 12 times earnings or less that isn't capital intensive can get LBOed in this market," an investor tells Barron's. One reason is the formerly unfriendly bond market; it is now much more receptive to LBOs, and with more discipline than in the wild days of 2006 and 2007 and debt-laden deals for Hilton Hotels, TXU, Harrah's Entertainment and Clear Channel Communications.

The technology sector is ripe for LBO activity because tech outfits usually have strong, cash-rich balance sheets.

An Attractive Dozen

Barron's has compiled this list of potential leveraged-buyout candidates. Because LBOs typically require heavy borrowing, many targets feature significant cash on their balance sheets, or relatively modest debt. They also usually present low ratios of enterprise value to pretax cash flow.

* eBay
* Dell
* Yahoo!
* Gap
* Fidelity Nat. Info. Svcs
* Safeway
* Computer Sciences
* Western Digital
* Whirlpool
* Seagate Tech.
* GameStop
* Aeropostale

Sources: Thomson Reuters; Bloomberg

The retail sector has also been popular with private equity despite the industry's historic volatility and sensitivity to the economy. Toys "R" Us, Neiman Marcus and Michaels Stores have all gone private in recent years.

Several Wall Street firms have drawn up lists of buyout candidates in response to concerns of their institutional bond clients, who want to avoid holding debt in such companies; LBOs, after all, set off explosions in corporate borrowing, downgrades of credit ratings and falling bond prices. In a recent report, Merrill Lynch's credit team spotlighted Omnicom Group (OMC), Clorox (CLX), CBS (CBS), ConAgra Foods (CAG) and Safeway. UBS put out a similar report earlier this month and highlighted Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Lubrizol (LZ), Computer Sciences (CSC), Pitney Bowes (PBI) and Expedia (EXPE).

The targets of past LBOs often have been surprises because of factors besides valuation, notably the receptiveness of corporate boards and managements. LBO shops hurt their reputation with boards by walking away from some high-profile deals in 2008 after the markets tanked.

Private-equity firms are eager to complete transactions because they're sitting on tens of billions of dollars of commitments from institutional investors—on which they typically earn fees—and will be forced to free the investors from those commitments if they don't invest the money. The firms' executives are great at boasting about their prospects, and they're now talking about doing $10 billion-plus deals. But despite the excitement created by a few deals, private-equity transactions still account for just 10% of 2010 domestic mergers and acquisitions, according to Capital IQ. The biggest LBO since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 was the $5 billion purchase of IMS Health earlier this year.

Corporate buyers have—and probably will retain—an edge because they have deeper pockets and access to lower-cost financing. Corporations also can realize greater cost savings from integrating acquisitions into existing businesses. This enables them to pay more.

It's easy to see why private equity is attracted to Seagate, the top maker of disk drives. Seagate and rival Western Digital have some of the lowest valuations in the tech sector even after moving up last week on the Seagate buyout report.

The New REIT Choices

In these days of stagnant stock prices and moribund real estate markets, many people might be surprised to learn that real estate investment trusts, those stock-like investments that own real estate, have been one of the best performers in 2010. But at least one group has noticed the trend: real estate executives, who are flooding the stock market with a slew of new REITs.

Almost 20 publicly traded REITs could debut in 2010 (seven had already debuted by the end of August), according to real estate–research firm Dealogic, a big increase from the nine REIT initial public offerings in 2009. The REITs own everything from hotels in Massachusetts to glass office towers in Texas. Investors so far have been receptive to existing REITs this year; as a group, they’re up 12 percent, with residential REITs up almost 25 percent (the broader stock market is down 2 percent). Even with the still floundering market for most IPOs, REIT executives are betting that by going public now they can raise cash to pay down their own debt or to gobble up properties at distressed prices, says Michael Dubis, a financial planner who also teaches a course on REITs at the University of Wisconsin.

Of course, investing in any sort of real estate these days requires some faith that prices for offices and houses won’t start tanking again. Even in the flurry of new IPOs, some REITs have had to cut their offering prices to attract skeptical investors, says Nick Einhorn, a research analyst at the IPO-research firm Renaissance Capital. But some pros still see potential in REITs. The average REIT dividend payout is 4.5 percent, considerably higher than that of government bonds or money-market funds.

Some analysts say a few of the new commercial REITs show promise. One of the more highly regarded newcomers is Piedmont Office Realty Trust (PDM). The Johns Creek, Ga.–based firm owns 73 buildings, including Chicago’s Aon Center, the nation’s fifth-tallest building. Piedmont went public in February at $14.50 a share, and even though its shares have risen 27 percent, it still sports a high 6.9 percent dividend yield. The share price of smaller Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) is down 4 percent since it debuted in June, but some analysts like it because of its unique properties: a collection of eight California office buildings and movie-production spots. The firm raised more than $200 million from its IPO and recently acquired another office building.

Mid-Termania is!

The market is again today, but you don't get too excited. We had yesterday in the profits of the parking problems, which is exactly what happened a week ago.

In the last seven trading sessions, high, as is the case with closing 1,185.64 and low closing has been 1,182.45. Like narrow.Today, we've been as high as 1192.0,85% 0.67% S & P 500 as compared to today is currently our Buy list.

Of course, the big news is today elections. [1] [2] if the query should have thought, Democrats are in great loss. Intrade now receives more than one sees the 60 seats in the House GOP.

I would caution you from reading too much politics, starting from the market. You are a player that Larry Kudlow syndrome, in which each uptick or market is, therefore, to a downtick in Washington.

I'm reminded of the story when Richard Nixon was asked what he should, therefore, if he is President of the United States.Nixon said that he would be likely to down to the purchases of stocks, Wall Street. They asked the nimitekstiin wall Streeter, what he thought, that he said that if the President Nixon, he too will not be buying stocks.

The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today in Washington. [1] [2] the great news coming tomorrow at 2: 15 pm, when they notify Quantitative easing plan. as I said before I wanted everyone else is disappointed, so you will not be able to see small troops surprised.

Then on Thursday, we have three more earnings reports in the future. If that does not have enough excitement, Friday we have the jobs report. However, the majority of the then November must be pretty boring.

Posted by Eddy 2nd.November 2010 at 10: 23 am

3 Promising Stocks That Aren't Industry Leaders (Screens)

Buy shares of companies that lead their industries -- that sounds like reliable enough advice, doesn't it? After all, top dogs often have the most bargaining power with suppliers, the biggest research budgets and the brands that everyone recognizes.

There's just one problem: Industry leaders tend to lag behind peers in producing stock returns, according to new research.

The findings come from Robert Arnott, who is something of an investment myth-buster and the founder of Research Affiliates, a firm that devises "fundamentals-based" stock and bond indexes for passive investors seeking a performance edge. In the June edition of his firm's newsletter, Arnott tackled the belief that industry leaders offer market-beating stock returns. Prior research had shown that measures like profit margins and returns on equity tend to revert to their means over time. That is, the most profitable companies tend to attract fresh competition, while profit laggards often either fail or are forced to improve. Arnott looked at U.S. stock performance over 58 years ended 2009 and found that sector leaders by market value in a given year tended to underperform their peers by an average of 3.3% a year over the following decade. Leadership proved fleeting. Over the entire 58-year period, the average sector saw its leader change six times.

So much for investing with No. 1. Below are listed three companies that don't lead their industries in size or profitability, but whose margins are improving and whose sales are growing faster than those of their peers.

Projected sales growth, current fiscal year: 36%

The packaged food business is dominated by giants. Kraft Foods (KFT), based 30 minutes north of Chicago, is expected to generate sales of nearly $49 billion this year, and Switzerland's Nestlé should more than double that. Diamond Foods (DMND), based in San Francisco, isn't projected to top $1 billion this year or next. The company has a hit on its hands, however, in chip-maker Kettle Foods, which it bought earlier this year for $615 million. Management says demand for the brand is so fierce it must add production capacity. Diamond's namesake baking nuts and its Emerald snack nuts are selling well, too. Demand for its Pop Secret popcorn has been flat of late, but management is investing in new commercials. Companywide sales are forecast to jump 36% this year, thanks largely to the acquisition, but investment bank BMO Capital Markets estimates that Diamond will generate 8% to 12% of organic sales growth – well faster than the internal growth its big competitors typically achieve.

Projected sales growth, current fiscal year: 27%

Netgear (NTGR) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) both sell networking equipment. The latter is 50 times larger by sales, but the former is expected to increase its sales twice as fast this year. Netgear specializes in products for homes and small businesses, including Wi-Fi routers, print servers, centralized storage systems and boxes that allow users to share their 3G and 4G cellular connections with other devices. Management's latest push is centered on devices that allow users to view Internet content on their televisions – and that allow any company that can deliver a broadband connection to compete with cable television providers. Operating margins for the company have recently topped levels achieved in early 2007, before the start of the recent recession. Netgear is debt-free and holds cash equal to more than one-fifth of its stock market value.

Projected sales growth, current fiscal year: 26%

Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI) is the third-largest generic drug company operating in the U.S. by number of prescriptions dispensed, behind Teva (TEVA) and Mylan (MYL). Its sales are expected to grow faster this year than those of its larger peers. Unlike legacy drug makers, Watson stands poised to cash in on the parade of patent expirations on blockbuster medicines over the next several years, not shrink during it. For example, Watson will be one of the first companies to sell a U.S. generic form of Lipitor, a cholesterol drug with yearly U.S. sales of more than $7 billion, beginning in November 2011. Management says that in addition to six products launching this year, it has 110 applications pending, including 13 that would bring exclusive marketing rights.

Month Enable visual effect

I am reposting this February. I had done some research on the impact of the month, on the other hand, are:

in 1932, because most of the S & P 500 's capital gain has come for seven days on a monthly basis, in particular witnessed a — the first three trading days and the last four days of each month.This corresponds to approximately one third of the total trading days of the month for the remaining period of their stock market actually lost money.

These numbers: 1932 from the beginning of the S & P 500 has gained almost leaderboard will be%, which is approximately 6.5% annualized.Investment in only the last four days, and the first of each month, more than three days of the date on which the returned to 63,000% (the cost of trading in each direction)., which is the Annualized 8,6%. [1] [2] However, if you consider that it is really only 32% of the time, true annualized has more than 28%.

At the end of the Month — other 68% of the time — has led to the combined loss in close proximity to 78%.

I would like to add some important observations. First of all, I am not offered this advice to trading than. I am merely shows that the market has historically been the outsized gains on a monthly basis on the turn.Remember that the placing on the market of trading and ran out of expensive, and these results do not include taxes or fees.

Secondly, this only applies to dividends, capital gains are not a very large part of the market. [1] [2] the total amount of the return is due to the increase in the dividends, and if you have only one-third of the time, you are going to return to lose.

Having said that, here is a chart showing what month, on the other hand, investments in the display. S & P 500 is a red line. blue line shall within seven days, and the remaining months of the date on which it is a black line.

This is the time to take a look at the average daily gains.

Why the market has shown this performance?, it is difficult to say. One idea is that we've seen in the figure, which is simply a random action print. If splice and dice long enough information, you are bound to find some discrepancies.

My hunch is, however, that is something that the months turn. perhaps it is becoming the new money or perhaps a positive business News is the more likely you are to be made public.

However, as effective as historical information is, in my opinion, the effect is too short to serve as a basis for all of the strategy.

Posted by Eddy on day 1.November 12, 2010 at 2: 39 pm

The latest Intrade

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Dollar/Yen Hits reality, 15-year low

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The Gold Mine in Your Old iPhone (Deal of the Day)

For the speed of its march toward becoming the country’s largest public company, Apple (AAPL) has its gadget-happy consumers to thank -- particularly the devotees willing to stand in line for every new version of the iPhone or iPad. But those technophile consumers aren’t just the Pavlovian spenders they might at first appear to be. Apple products hold their value much longer than other consumer electronics, says Toan Tran, an equity analyst who covers Apple for Morningstar – which means reselling an old Apple device can be a smart way to fund a new one.

For example, an AT&T (T) customer who bought an iPhone in 2008 for $199 could sell it today for as much as $104 on trade-in site Gazelle. That’s enough to cover more than half the $199 subsidized price of the newest model. In contrast, a BlackBerry Storm, which cost $199 in 2008, would now fetch $44 at most. For an older 13” MacBook, Radio Shack (RSH) will pay as much as $315, which covers almost a third of the $999 price tag on the newest 13” model. And even a battered Apple device isn't worthless. BuyMyTronics.com will pay $35 for a broken iPad with “extreme damage” and no charger.

Apple prices hold up largely because of good engineering and high demand, says Tran. And, there’s Apple’s name-brand recognition and loyalty. The company also doesn’t make very dramatic changes from generation to generation, says Andrew Eisner, the director of content for marketplace Retrevo. Current software and many apps still work on older models, and similar ports allow interchangeable use with chargers, stereos and other accessories. Considering that Apple allows few discounts, a slight break on relatively new technology can be a good deal for buyers, he says.

To sell an old Apple device quickly and with minimal hassle, try a trade-in site, says Natali Del Conte, a senior editor at CNET. Gazelle, Toshiba, Radio Shack and Costco will all give free estimates of resale value. Putting up items on eBay is riskier and potentially more rewarding. International bidders and Americans looking to buy a newer iPhone before they qualify for the carrier’s lower subsidized price ($199 versus $599 for a 16GB phone) bid up prices as high as $1,000. But don’t expect such a windfall. According to bid-tracker Honesty.com, a buyer shouldn’t pay more than $180 for an iPhone that’s two generations old.

To maximize the value of an Apple resale, don’t wait too long, experts advise. Prices will drop as soon as there’s something newer on the horizon, Eisner says. If you don’t already, pay attention to Apple’s scheduled product announcements and rumors about what new items are likely to be introduced, and when. While the third-generation 32GB iPod Touch was the newest out there, a second-generation model sold for as much as $93 on Gazelle. But after the new fourth-generation was announced Sept. 1, the maximum offer dropped to $75.

Cyclicals are still Rich

This is, of course, crude metric, I want to watch to the valuation of cyclical. These are the companies from which undertakings are closely tied to the cycle of stocks. This is the ratio of the Morgan Stanley cyclical index (^ CYC) divided by the S & P 500:

In other words, when the line goes, cyclicals are out performing.

26. April, the ratio of closed at 0.8034, its largest ever reading.After this, the ratio is moved to the very faint. in March 2009 as low as possible a chance to familiarize yourself with the ratio of 0. comp/m.4184. Historically, when you follow the instructions in the section change, is the big deal, and it will last for a few years (although, but not always).

S & P 500 is currently trading around 1195. If it closes exists, this should be the highest after closing in may at the index was 1202.26.In April of this year, the high became 23 when the S & P 500 close 1217.28.

Although the S & P 500 and the deposit facility will remain unchanged, as well as its high, Dow is very close to a new high. Dow is currently 11,217, is greater than its high close to the Convention on diplomatic relations of 18 April (which became 23 instead of 24) at 11,205.03. Dow is currently the largest nearby track 19.September 2008 onwards 11,388.44.

Posted by Eddy 2nd.November 2010 at 1: 43 pm

Dow Finishes Below 11000 (Market Update)

By Jonathan Cheng

China's move to slow its economy collided with concerns about the foreclosure crisis to roil financial markets on Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst day since mid-August, falling below 11000 and wiping out two weeks of gains. The average remains up 5.3% for the year-to-date. Bank stocks slid. Crude-oil futures fell below $80 a barrel in its biggest one-day decline in eight months, and gold dropped 2.6%.

While China's move to tighten interest rates was relatively small, its timing surprised investors, many of whom had been fixated on the U.S. market, where the Federal Reserve is expected to soon embark on a new round of monetary easing.

The Dow fell 165.07 points, or 1.48%, to 10978.62.

Tuesday's decline—on the anniversary of the Black Monday crash of 1987—snapped a rally that many had feared was getting long in the tooth. Stocks had rallied 11% since the end of August, in large part because of optimism that the Fed's stimulus would help fuel U.S. economic growth. But the gains belied worries that the Fed's action may not be enough to help juice the economy or drive corporate revenue. The recent debacle over foreclosures has only added to the nagging uncertainty.

"It just shows the nervousness of this market—in the first few weeks of October, people have had this nervous sense that something's going to break, this market can't just keep going up," said Ryan Larson, the Chicago-based head of U.S. equity trading at RBC Global Asset Management.

At the same time, the dollar enjoyed a one-day rebound, surging more than 1% against the euro, the pound, the Swiss franc and the Australian and Canadian dollars.

The sectors most exposed to global demand were the heaviest weights on the market, with energy and materials sagging at the prospect of a Chinese belt-tightening.

But Bank of America was the largest decliner, tumbling 4.4% to close at its lowest point since the financial crisis, after reports that a group of institutional investors and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York were suing the Charlotte, N.C., lender over mortgage securities. Other big banks shadowed BofA's decline, with J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all shedding 1.3% or more.

"This is a reminder that much of the mortgage mess remains unresolved," said Brian Lazorishak, portfolio manager and quantitative analyst at Chase Investment Counsel.

Also weighing on the markets were technology stocks, which suffered from robust earnings from giants Apple and International Business Machines that nonetheless failed to impress the market. Apple dropped 2.7% while IBM lost 3.4%, bringing the two bellwethers off all-time highs reached on Monday. Yahoo, which fell 2.7% in Tuesday trading, recouped some of those losses after quadrupling quarterly profits after the market close.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index dropped 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.8%.

Ominously for market bulls, the losses came amid an increase in stock trading, with 5.7 billion shares changing hands in New York Stock Exchange composite volume—about 25% higher than Monday's trading volume. In another reflection of the investor skittishness, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the "fear gauge" known as the VIX, jumped off its recent lows, rising as much as 12% during the day.

"The fact we're seeing heavier volume adds some legitimacy to the dip," said Mark Turner, co-head of sales trading for Instinet. "The Apple and IBM numbers got us off to a disappointing start last night, and the news out of China this morning had the dollar higher and commodities lower."

Jerry Webman, chief economist and senior investment officer with OppenheimerFunds, attributed some of the market pessimism to a speech by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher, who said that "no decisions have been made" on another round of Treasury buying by the Fed.

"The Fed can wave the magic wand, but behind it, we need to see what might be unrealistic wishful thinking and temper our enthusiasm," Mr. Webman said. "There was a whole series of things today—'Fedspeak,' China tightening, Apple's guidance, revenue numbers and some of the technical data suggesting we're in an overbought market."

Among stocks in focus, Coldwater Creek plunged 35% after the women's apparel retailer sharply cut its fiscal third-quarter guidance below already-cautious expectations. Meanwhile, Massey Energy was the day's best performer on the S&P 500, jumping 5% after The Wall Street Journal reported the nation's sixth-largest coal miner is exploring strategic alternatives, including a possible sale.

Write to Jonathan Cheng at jonathan.cheng@wsj.com

0% of the Vote-In ….

Although we are all waiting for you in the elections, 1.1. x 2, here are some of the items, I have found interesting:

Bespoke is a great post that there are similarities and differences between the notes, in the light of the recent rally. Weaker dollar is more internationally focused on helping companies.As a result, companies in foreign sales positions are only 10.36% but more than half of them stocks in the event of a sale outside the United States in the future are 17.55%.

Michael Stokes takes a look through my gold gold trading.

The latest Intrade data show in 63.75 seats, 11.3 the standard deviation for the GOP. based on the 50-seat and 60-seat agreements. If we use agreement seat 60-and 70-seat, is a non-profit 64.3 seats 13 standard deviation.

This story sounds like it's lede is Carson Monologue 1986 onwards:

Be .gov Arnold Schwarzeneger says, welfare recipients will not be able to use the debit cards in circulation in the State of the medical marijuana shops, Scooby and other companies whose services have been considered "incompatible with the purpose of the" program.

5. November 1974, Jerry Brown was the first elected Governor of California. [1] [2] Dow had 674.75.

Check out Josh Brown large Star Wars-themed roundup, of the one part, and I am proud of the economic blogosphere. designated Jawa.

Posted by Eddy 2nd.November 2010 at 10: 44 am

3 Cheap Stocks With Insider Buying (Screens)

Insider buying tends to foretell handsome stock returns. So does a modest stock valuation. Combine the two clues into a search for stocks, and the results might be doubly rewarding.

Company insiders, including top executives, board members and key shareholders, are required to publicly report transactions in shares of firms with which they're affiliated. Studies have long shown that insider purchases tend to produce market-beating returns – especially those that involve "c-level" officers (chief this-or-that), those made by more than one insider and those at small companies with limited analyst coverage.

In 2007, Citibank's (C) quantitative strategies team in London devised a stock screen using these signals and other promising signs, including upside earnings surprises and modest price-to-earnings ratios. Back-testing of more than 9,000 insider transactions made at U.K. companies since 1994 showed that such a stock-picking strategy would have returned more than 23% a year.

Below are listed three companies with recent share purchases by c-level executives and shares that seem reasonably priced.

Monsanto (MON) sells crop seeds that have been bred or modified to resist bugs, disease and the company's own brand of weed killer, Roundup. Its shares trade at 20 times forecast earnings for the company's current fiscal year, but are perhaps less expensive than that number suggests. Earnings are in a slump, down 25% from two years ago, as margins in the company's herbicide business have been hurt by competition from overseas, especially China. Also, the company's new eight-trait corn seed called SmartStax has so far failed to impress with yield gains over cheaper two- and three-trait seeds already on the market. Management says yields were hurt by difficult growing conditions this year. Monsanto has a vast pipeline of seeds in development, including drought-resistant corn and Roundup-resistant soybeans; the latter is expected to prove a big seller in Brazil. Sales and earnings are expected to increase over the next two years, despite the company's challenges. Investors who tuck shares away today and await an earnings recovery collect a 2% yield. The company's chief executive and chief financial officer spent more than $1.5 million apiece on stock in July.

MEMC Electronics Materials (WFR) was created as a division of Monsanto, coincidentally, in 1959. The company makes silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry and sells mostly raw silicon to solar wafer makers, although it hopes to gradually make more of its own solar wafers. Last year MEMC paid $200 million for SunEdison, a builder of solar power farms. Analysts say earnings for the company are particularly difficult to forecast because of the lumpiness of solar revenues. A consensus of more than 20 analysts calls for earnings of 45 cents a share this year, up from a loss of 30 cents last year. Early forecasts for next year call for earnings to jump to $1 a share. That number, if it's attainable, would likely prove shares a good deal at their recent price of $12 and change. Seven officers bought shares in early August, together spending more than $1 million.

Charming Shoppes (CHRS) sells clothing for full-figured women through its Lane Bryant and Fashion Bug chains and for even fuller-figured women through its Catherine's stores. The company has operated at a loss for most of the past three years, and its shares briefly traded for pocket change last year, before rebounding to over $3 today. Last week, turnaround specialist James Fogarty, who had headed the company for the past 18 months, resigned to the surprise of Wall Street. Shares dropped more than 20% on the news. Fogarty spent more than $400,000 on stock in June. Other insiders made smaller purchases following news of his departure. Charming Shoppes in September reported that it had reduced its debt to less than its cash balance and achieved its first sales increase at longstanding stores in 15 quarters. The 1% sales increase at stores was overshadowed by a 36% jump in online sales. Current forecasts have the company returning to a slim profit next year.

Chasing Lost Brands (Tough Customer)

When Chuck Moxley couldn’t find his favorite coffee creamer—International Delight’s cinnamon hazelnut flavor—he went on a mission. First, the Chandler, Ariz., fund-raising consultant tried to find a supply online. Then he attempted to re-create the confection at home. Imagine his delight when he discovered a hotel serving the discontinued creamer in single-serving tubs. Moxley persuaded a friend in the hospitality business to connect him with a distributor so he could buy tubs by the case. When International Delight discontinued the single-serving portions, Moxley talked a second distributor into selling its last three cartons. And he’s still looking for more. “When you like something, you like it,” he says.

Most of us shrug and switch brands when a favorite product disappears. But every so often, folks get obsessed. Nothing, it seems, can replace a cherished mascara or brand of candy. And given that, following years of expansion, many companies are now cutting product lines to economize on manufacturing and marketing (Heinz is cutting its portfolio 15 percent; Kellogg by nearly a third), there are likely more distraught shoppers wandering the aisles than ever before.

“People get crazy ballistic,” says Garland Pollard, a consultant who blogs about discontinued products at BrandlandUSA.com. A favorite example: Carnation Breakfast Bars, discontinued in 1997. More than 4,000 fans signed an online petition demanding their return; others have posted rants on Pollard’s site, denouncing the manufacturer for its “gross misjudgment of the American consumer.” The Breakfast Bar brigade will do anything, apparently, for one last bite. When one man reported discovering six boxes in his grandmother’s deep freeze, another offered to buy them. “E-mail me,” he pleaded.

Some get obsessed with a product simply because it works, but for many, the attachment is emotional, says Suzanne Clarridge, CEO of My Brands, an online service that offers hard-to-find and discontinued products. Shoppers have called sobbing over a vanished line of dog toys. For some, it’s about lack of control in a chaotic world. The common complaint: “Everything I love disappears!”

Kelly Kreth will cop to those feelings. She used to buy Flex shampoo for two bucks. Now she’s paying as much as $6 on eBay. The price keeps going up, but the New York publicist doesn’t care. Flex wasn’t the greatest shampoo, she admits, but she’s crazy about the smell and the accompanying childhood memories. She regrets her failure to support the brand—there were periods when she switched to Pantene. “You don’t value something until it’s gone,” she says. “How did I let Flex slip through my fingers?”

There are services available to aid the grieving customer. Estée Lauder, for example, offers a Gone But Not Forgotten hotline for consumers seeking discontinued products. Reps will comb the warehouse and ship up to six pieces. Skin cream is the most popular request, says Andrea McLean, the company’s customer-communications director. But last year Estée Lauder got so many requests (more than 4,000) for a discontinued eyeliner, it put the cosmetic back into production.

The Vermont Country Store actually re-creates house versions of discontinued products. I was delighted to discover it offers a mock take on my 1980s favorite, Clairol Herbal Essence—a cheap, toxic-green shampoo that cleaned the daylights out of your hair. A single bottle cost me $15 plus $9 shipping, and it’s worth every penny. My hair once again smells like a pine forest from Mars.

For others, the solution is old-fashioned patience. South Carolina designer Janis Badarau keeps renewing her eBay alert on a discontinued line of canvas walking shoes. Every so often, someone cleaning out the closet puts a pair of size 38s up for sale, and Badarau snatches them up. So far, she’s stockpiled six pairs. If worse comes to worst, she says, she’ll leave them as a legacy: “Whoever inherits them can sell them on eBay.”

Noonish Market Update

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Jaguar XJ, Meet L.A.

Shanghai jumps 3.2% overnight to cap off + 8.5% week

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Credit Scores: How 720 Became the New 680 (Card Sharp)

Until recently, a credit score of 680 was something to be proud of. It meant you paid most of your bills on time, got dinged when you went shopping for a refi, but in general, had a solid enough record to get a loan at the best rates.

Not anymore. That 680 is firmly second-tier these days, says John Ulzheimer, president of consumer education at Credit.com. Now, borrowers need at least 720 to get the biggest loans or the best terms, including a credit card with the longest 0% APR promotion or a jumbo mortgage. For millions of once-desirable consumers with scores between 680 and 720, that 40-point jump could cost thousands of dollars over the life of a typical loan.

Once that line has been drawn, there’s no wiggle room, either. Lenders place borrowers into brackets, which means someone with a score of 719 is lumped into a bracket that starts as low as 690. That one measly point could cost more than $600 over the life of an average 36-month car loan, or $2,500 over the life of a 15-year home equity loan, according to Informa Research Services. And that is “ludicrous on its face," says Ed Mierzwinski of the U.S. Public Interest Research Group. "Credit scores are a blunt tool being abused by creditors as if they were a sharp instrument.”

For their part, lenders say the credit scores aren’t arbitrary and that a score of 720 predicts the borrowers who are most likely to repay their debts and least likely to default. At the same time, they’re more profitable than people with a perfect score of 850, because they’re also likely to carry a balance or incur fees – and therefore, to generate profit for the lender.

As for 680, it’s become a casualty of the market crash. When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were backing mortgages after the crash, they settled on the 720 threshold for the best pricing, says Keith Gumbinger, a vice president at HSH Associates, a mortgage-data tracking firm. At the time, most borrowers were afraid of lending to anyone, so 720 seemed plenty low. Because most mortgages are backed by Fannie or Freddie, the major lenders kept the same threshold, and as banks have started to put loans on their books again, it’s stuck.

Of course, while earning a 680 wasn’t all that difficult before the recession, the new good-credit bar of 720 is harder to reach. With more people out of work and unable to pay their bills, even consumers with previously envious credit scores might not reach 720. To get there, a consumer would need low balances on credit cards and a 15-year credit history — but might have missed a couple payments over the last two years. Someone who regularly pays on time could drop from the mid-700s if he applied for several new credit cards recently. Other 720-scorers: Those who haven’t missed a payment but carry balances that are more than 30% of their credit line; or those who have a short credit history but pay on time.

For someone on the cusp, the differences could be as small as one extra credit inquiry – like when a lender looks up your credit score before approving you for a loan, or if a prospective employer pulls your credit report without telling the credit bureaus it’s strictly for employment reasons. The same thing could happen if you’re suddenly using more of your available credit because you made a big purchase, says Ulzheimer. 

What’s a 680 to do? Sadly, not much beyond the regular steps to credit score maintenance, experts say. That means paying bills on time and keeping debts to a reasonable level. And be patient, says Ulzheimer: As lending picks up, lenders will be forced to relax their standards once again. Within as early as six months to a year, 680 could be back on top.

Investment Pros Embrace China, Emerging Markets

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Risk is in vogue again. A survey released on Tuesday shows fund managers are increasingly embracing emerging-markets assets, spurred by expectations for greater liquidity in the global financial system.

A net 49% of investors are overweight on emerging market assets, up 17 percentage points for the month, while interest in U.S., Eurozone and Japanese equities remained stable, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.

“The level of risk that investors are taking in their portfolios rose more sharply than in any month since April 2009,” said Bank of America Merrill Lynch in a statement.

Fund managers are also more optimistic about China, with a net 19% expecting China’s economy to grow in the next 12 months, up from a net 11% who felt that way in September and a significant 38 percentage points above August’s figure.

Earlier Tuesday, the Chinese central bank raised its key one-year lending and deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points in a bid to dampen inflationary pressure and slow down inflow of “hot money,” China’s official Xinhua news agency reported. The rate hike is the first since December 2007 and goes into effect on Oct. 20.

China’s economy is forecast to grow 10.5% this year and then slow to 9.6% expansion in 2011, the International Monetary Fund said earlier this month.

“While improved risk appetite is to be welcomed, one proviso is just how narrow the investor focus on GEM (global emerging market equities) is at this point,” said Michael Hartnett, chief global equities strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research, in a statement.
Confidence in developed markets lags

In contrast, the survey showed a notable absence of confidence in U.S. and Eurozone equities.

A net 4% of fund managers are underweight the U.S., while a net 3% are overweight the Eurozone. Managers are now neutral on U.K. equities from being underweight last month. At the same time, they were more bearish about Japan.

“These positions reflect notable uncertainty over the direction of the dollar and the euro. While growing numbers of investors believe the U.S. dollar is undervalued, the prospect of quantitative easing in the U.S. is countering potential dollar appetite and raising expectations of inflation,” the survey noted.

A net 45% of fund managers now see the U.S. dollar as undervalued, up from 18% last month. But only a net 12% of respondents expect the U.S. dollar to gain against major currencies over the next 12 months.

The U.S. dollar jumped 1.4% against a basket of currencies on Tuesday in response to China’s tighter monetary policy.

Aside from emerging markets, there is a clear sign of a broader rise in risk appetite, the survey showed.

Demand for commodity exposure rebounded with a net 17% of the panel overweight in October, sharply up from a net 4% in September. Still, a net 24% of the panel viewed gold as being overvalued. Read the gold report.

Fund managers were also more confident about corporate profits and want to see companies being more aggressive about investing in their businesses, returning excess cash to shareholders and raising more debt.

A total of 194 fund managers, managing a collective $492 billion, participated in the global survey, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Accounting: Weekly changes to positions year 4, week 11 Fund

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Intuitive surgical (ISRG) - the stock knew

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S & P 500 update to 13 day moving average

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Eaton is combination of domestic (ETN) cut costs and the power of the multinational industrials shows foreign sales

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DJIA Rises 129.35 in Snapback (Market Update)

U.S. stocks jumped Wednesday, erasing most of the previous day's bruising losses, as a positive outlook from the financial sector and a spate of strong earnings from airlines and other bellwethers gave investors reasons for optimism.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 129.35 points, or 1.18%, to finish at 11107.97, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index was higher by 12.27 points at 1178.17 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 20.44 points to 2457.39.

Materials and energy stocks were two of the best-performing sectors, a day after both were clobbered by fears over Beijing's attempts to slow the world's second-largest economy. Cliffs Natural Resources added $2.27, or 3.6%, to $64.97 and Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold gained 2.63, or 2.8%, to 95.29. Massey Energy, meantime, jumped 1.92, or 5.1%, to 39.25 after reports the Richmond, Va., miner is exploring a potential sale of the company.

Christian Thwaites, president and chief executive of Sentinel Investments, said investors were recorrecting after Tuesday's sharp decline, which was triggered by China's interest-rate increase and questions over U.S. banks' foreclosure process. Those concerns, he said, are "minor stories in a longer-term play."

Mr. Thwaites said he was encouraged by the good showing in energy and materials stocks, arguing that expectations of Treasurys purchases by the Federal Reserve were pushing investors into alternative currencies. "Being in energy stocks is protection against that, and there's also going to be global demand to buoy that," he said.

Transport stocks also soared, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average gaining 2.2% after a trio of airlines reported strong earnings.

Delta Air Lines jumped 1.27, or 11%, to 12.97 after swinging to a third-quarter profit and reporting strong forward bookings through the holiday season. American Airlines parent AMR surged 82 cents, or 13%, to 7.38 after its first profit in two years, while US Airways Group gained 75 cents, or 7.4%, to 10.80 on strong earnings. JetBlue Airways and United Continental rode the wave of optimism, picking up 6.8% and 7.6% respectively.

Danish drug maker Novo Nordisk jumped 9.43, or 11%, to 100.42, after the Food and Drug Administration sent a rival diabetes drug back for more testing. The makers of that drug fell, with Amylin Pharmaceutical down 46%, Alkermes down 28%, and Eli Lilly down 3.9%.

Intel and Boeing helped advance the broad-based rally, which included all but three of the Dow's 30 components and all 10 sectors of the S&P 500.

Boeing added 2.31, or 3.4%, to 71.48, to lead the Dow components after the aerospace company said it swung to a quarterly profit from a year-ago loss and lifted its outlook. Intel gained 43 cents, or 2.2%, to 19.64, after it said it would invest up to $8 billion over several years to upgrade its manufacturing plants in the U.S. and build a new research facility in Oregon.

Also contributing were pharmaceutical companies, as Merck gained 47 cents, or 1.3%, to 36.99 and Pfizer added 27 cents, or 1.6%, to 17.63.

Even financial stocks joined in the rally, despite continuing worries over mortgage foreclosures.

Morgan Stanley pared deep morning losses to finish down by one penny, at 25.40, after the investment bank's net profit fell in the third quarter. Wells Fargo gained 1.05, or 4.3%, to 25.60, after the San Francisco bank posted its best-ever quarterly earnings and made encouraging remarks on the foreclosure issue.

Goldman Sachs Group rose 2.88, or 1.8%, to 159.30, after its second consecutive quarterly profit decline, of 40% from a year earlier, surpassed most analyst estimates. BlackRock, however, fell 5.12, or 2.9%, to 170.31, even after beating analysts' forecasts with third-quarter earnings rising 74%.

Bank of America, at the center of the foreclosure debacle, erased a steep morning decline to finish down five cents to 11.75. Oppenhemier and Stifel both downgraded the stock, and the Charlotte, N.C., lender vowed to fight government-backed demands that it repurchase loans that allegedly didn't meet underwriting guidelines and other promises.

"There's still a lot of headline risk around the financials, and that's going to persist for some time," said Jim Dunigan, managing executive of investments at PNC Wealth Management. "Most of the banks seem to have their arms around the challenges and they're working through them, adjusting to the new financial regulations and business models. So if you can stomach the headline risk, you're building value over time, but there's still going to be some volatility."

United Technologies reversed its morning decline to creep up 31 cents to 73.93, after third-quarter earnings for the maker of Otis elevators and Pratt & Whitney plane engines posted slower-than-expected revenue growth.

Abbott Laboratories dropped 45 cents, or 0.9%, to 52.42, after third-quarter net income fell 40%. Yahoo added 31 cents, or 2%, to 15.88 to reverse most of Tuesday's loss after the company reported a surge in profits. Online auctioneer eBay, which finished with a 0.5% gain, added another 7% in after-hours trading after beating earnings expectations.

Sanofi-Aventis added 70 cents, or 2.1%, to 34.76, on news that U.S. antitrust regulators have given the green light for its proposed acquisition of Genzyme. Genzyme, which also announced third-quarter net income that more than quadrupled on strong product sales, advanced 22 cents, or 0.3%, to 72.10. Genzyme is meeting Friday with investors and analysts to provide 2011 financial guidance and make its case that the offer doesn't adequately value its existing business, its recovery plans or its pipeline products.

BHP Billiton rose 2.61, or 3.3%, to 81.34, despite a growing likelihood Saskatchewan's government would vote down its proposed $38.6 billion takeover of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, The Wall Street Journal reported. Potash fell 1.00, or 0.7%, to 142.05.

The broad gains came amid continued weakness in the dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six others, fell 1.3% as the euro jumped to almost $1.40. The yen strengthened to trade at 81.16 yen to the dollar—its strongest finish in 15 years.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note gained, pushing the yield down to 2.47%. Gold gained, while oil rose to $81.77 a barrel.